The Geelong urban area generally saw around average July rainfalls despite official figures released by the Bureau of Meteorology.Officially the figure at the Airport at Mt Duneed was 32.8 mm for the month, compared to an average 51 mm. However the urban area generally had totals between 30mm in the north and and 60+ mm in the south and east, with the 30-year July Geelong average of 43 mm being surpassed overall. Even GWS stations relatively close to the official Airport station recorded much heavier falls. Rain fell on 19 days and there no storms.
After yet another below average month, and a bleak outlook for water storages, Geelong has limped to around170 mm in a 7-month period. This is not as dry as last year, but it puts us on track for another dry year. It appears likely that a weak El Nino could affect rainfalls later this year, keeping spring rainfalls suppressed, but the trend showssome signs of easing, according to Ian Holton, long-term forecaster of Adelaide. Temperature swings in the Indian and Southern Oceans could relieve potential problems by the end of the year, despite bleak outlooks by both the BoM and Weatherzone. Another positive thing in our favour is that, historically, El Nino and a Geelong drought are never closely linked. Water catchments have risen to an estimated 22% of capacity after an above average month at West Barwon. Falls were generally up to 20% greater than the July average and runoff has resumed, albeit slowly. While the Moorabool catchment was below average, most places in the rest of the Geelong region were above.
Just as June was half a degree colder than average, July reared back to end up slightly warmer (by 0.65 degree C), leaving thetotal winter figure outcome still in doubt. Average daily minimum was 6.1 C compared with the long-term mean of 5.3 C and average daily maximum was 14.4 C compared to the mean of 13.9 C. Despite five frosts, our minimums in July were often surprisinglymild. Top temperature was 20.5 C on the 21st and lowest overnight minimum was minus 1.4 C on the 8th. Twice the temperature dropped to zero or below.
There were nine days when wind gusts exceeded 60 kph at Mt Duneed, the strongest gust of 87 kph being recorded on the 1st.
No significant damage was reported.
|Colac (Mt Gellibrand)||59.4||na|
|Forrest (West Barwon)||145.0||139.0|
|Hamlyn Heights (1)||na||47.5|
|Hamlyn Heights (2)||41.0||50.9|
|Mt Duneed Airport||32.8||51.0|
|Mt Duneed West||57.7||51.0|
|Urban Area Average||45.0||49.5|