After a dry summer and autumn, most of the Geelong region received around double the June average rainfall. Most Geelong suburbs, especially the southern ones, recorded around 95 mm compared to the average 42.2 mm. Some parts of the Otways received a little less than average but the encouraging news is that the water catchments did not suffer greatly and now stand close to 68% of capacity.
The relatively high June rainfalls took the Bureau of Meteorology by surprise since in April they had predicted a less than 40% chance of above average rains for most of the region in the May to July period. Up to the present, thanks to the June rains, we have just about reached the average with still one month to go. The Bureau’s current outlook however is more realistic – it suggests a greater than 65% chance that winter overall will continue to be above average. This forecast is based on the probabilities that good rain-bearing winds are expected from the northwest (negative Indian Ocean Dipole), the southwest (the Southern Annular Mode) and possibly the southeast (an East Coast Low or two). A La Nina developing over the Pacific Ocean is also a possibility to influence good rains. Winter has seen a number of Geelong’s worst floods in the past, so the community should also be prepared for this eventuality.
The Geelong weather station at Breakwater received over 84 mm (compared to the average 42 mm) and some suburbs, such as Belmont and Grovedale, recorded over 100 mm, similar to June last year.
The Breakwater figures will show a slightly warmer temperature than average: 10.5 C compared to 10.2 C. However this difference is virtually nullified by the urban heat island effect because the averages from the previous station at the Airport were colder due to its rural location.
Average daily maximum was 14.9 degrees C and minimums 6.1 degrees. There were 24 nights where the minimum temperature was below 10 degrees C; this was below the June average of 28 nights. In contrast there were no days where the temperature exceeded 20 degrees; the average is 0.3 days. Top temperature was 17.5 degrees C on the 28th.
There were 5 nights where temperatures at Breakwater dropped to 2 degrees C or lower. This generally indicates a frost, and was well above the average 2.8 nights for June. The coldest overnight temperature was -0.2 C on the 22nd.
A generally wet and mild month was accompanied by no strong winds over 60 kph, no thunder-days, no storms and no unusual phenomena. It was a settled month in everything except rainfall.