November turned out to be a real surprise to long-term weather forecasters. Even at the start of the month most models were predicting a fairly dry month, with only some chance of rain in the first week.
As it eventuated, by the middle of November Geelong had received over 60mm of rain, well in excess of the monthly average of 46mm. Once again this serves to demonstrate the difficulty of prediction in this part of Australia, where our weather is not controlled completely by any one factor, but is the result of a seemingly chaotic amalgam of forces
Some of these forces include: 1. The El Nino effect. Despite the current weak El Nino situation, there has been no drought around Geelong. 2. Indian Ocean northwest cloud bands. Recently some good rains have been brought locally from these. 3. Cool moist air from the Southern Ocean. Even relatively weak cold fronts passing to our south have deposited good falls in the Otways region. 4. Slow-moving troughs. One or two of these in the last month have resulted in good rains. 5. Blocking highs. Recently a stationary high over the Great Australian Bight resulted in a sequence of warm to hot, dry days.
Rainfalls in the Geelong urban area ranged from 92mm at Lara down to 64mm at Mt Duneed, but other good falls occurred at Torquay (105mm) and St Leonards (93.5mm). The Otways catchment had below average falls but the Moorabool system generally fared better than average, with Lal Lal receiving 79mm. Water resources stand at 74% of capacity, slightly better than at the same time last year.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND
Average temperatures for the month were about half a degree cooler than the 30-year average. Minimums averaged 9.5C (compared to 10.2) and maximums 20.7C compared to 21.2. This means spring overall was about 0.4 degrees below average.
In November there were 2 days over 30 degrees (max 35.2C on 26th) and the coolest day was 14.2C on the 7th. There were 2 thunder days (11th and 12th) and 2 very windy days with gusts over 70kph ((12th and 13th).
The Bureau has predicted a not unusual summer in terms of the likelihood of average rain and temperatures for the Geelong region. A neutral outlook has been predicted with no strong trend one way or the other.