November 2007

RAINFALL

The whole region – from the Bellarine Peninsula to the Otways received around double the normal November rainfall. West Barwon Dam recorded 190mm, more than double the normal, and Geelong’s urban area received from 115mm at Bell Post Hill to 80mm in Geelong CBD.Clearly the El Nino drought is being overtaken in this region by the current La Nina-inspired rainfall. Although the first two months of spring only brought Geelong 50mm, November’s 100mm+ has brought up the seasonal total to normal.

There were only two very windy days with gusts over 60kph, with 72kph registered at Mt Duneed on the 20th. There were 3 thunder days and between 60-90mm of rain caused some minor flash flooding on the 4th and 5th, and the Breakwater was closed on the 6th when the Barwon rose to minor flood level.Northern areas of Geelong, including Lara and Anakie received heavy downpours on the 28th in severe thunderstorms which completely bypassed the southern suburbs and the official BoM weather station at Mt Duneed. In those storms Anakie received over 30mm and flash flooding was reported in Lara.

The water catchments are now at approximately 38% of capacity.

TEMPERATURES AND WIND

Geelong’s mean temperatures for Nov 2007 were about 1.5 degrees C above the long-term average. Daily minimums averaged 11.2C (mean 9.3) and maximums averaged 21.3C (mean 20.3). There were 3 days over 30 degrees, and the hottest was 35.6 degrees on the 20th. Lowest overnight temperature was 6.2C on the 9th.

THE OUTLOOK

The Bureau of Meteorology predicts a warmer and drier summer than normal, but in a La Nina situation this forecast is very questionable. Summer rainfalls in this region are notoriously difficult to predict but I would be more surprised by a dry summer this year than a wet one.

RAINFALL DATA