November 2006

RAINFALL

Another very disappointing rainfall month saw Geelong and most surrounding districts end up with well below average rainfall for the whole spring season. In fact Geelong recorded its second lowest spring rainfall ever (total 56 mm) equalling our second lowest set in 1896. Urban Geelong totalled 15mm for November and most nearby districts, including the Bellarine Peninsula were similar. The long-term November average is 52mm. Rain fell on just six days.

In fact rainfall for the whole growing season from March to November has been the third lowest (216mm) since 1871 – the lowest was in 1982 (198 mm). The Otways water catchments at Forrest have also received their fourth lowest March to November totals as well – 560 mm – the lowest being 469 mm in 1914. The water catchments are now at 25.4% of capacity.

TEMPERATURES AND WIND

Geelong’s mean temperatures were 0.7 degrees below than the long-term average. Average daily minimum was 8.9 degrees (compared to 10.2) and average daily maximum was 21.1 (compared to 21.2) There were 3 days over 30 degrees, and the hottest was 37.3 degrees on the 30th. This top temperature was reached after an overnight low of 4.9C, our third lowest for this month. Lowest was 4.5C on the 18th.

On the 15th hail fell and the top temperature only reached 13.0 degrees. There were 7 windy days with gusts over 60kph, with 104kph registered at Mt Duneed on the 21st. There was one thunder day and one severe wind storm reported in the urban area on the 21st.

In fact the 21st was a most remarkable day. After two days over 30 degrees, a trough from the northwest was accompanied after 5.30pm by severe wind gusts reaching over 100 kph in many areas. The smoky dust of the day from fires in Western Victoria was blown away rapidly by hurricane-force wind gusts accompanied by a temperature surge as the hot northwesterly took over from a light sea breeze. In half an hour between 5.00pm and 5.30pm Geelong’s temperature surged from 19 degrees to 32 degrees, a very rare occurrennce.

THE OUTLOOK

The Bureau of Meteorology predicts a warmer summer than normal, but Indian Ocean temperature changes have increased the possibility of cloud and rain. The current El Nino, however, is expected by most observers to run until next autumn.

RAINFALL DATA